Portugal Colonial - Diplomacy likely to trump geography in choice of new pope

Some hope his successor, to be chosen in a conclave of cardinals in the coming days or weeks, could come from Africa or Asia.

The late Argentine pontiff championed far-flung regions long overlooked by the Church, whether in his cardinal appointments or in his travels that strayed off the beaten path, from Mongolia to Papua New Guinea.

A non-European pope would make sense, given that Catholicism is growing in Africa and Asia, while church attendance is dropping and growth near-stagnant in Europe.

But in today's increasingly complex world, analysts say an inclusive outlook and diplomatic skills will be key factors in the choice of the next pope, rather than a particular passport.

The Church's first pope, Saint Peter, came from Galilee, in today's Israel, yet the long line of pontiffs in his wake have been chiefly Italian.

Directly after being made pope on March 13, 2013, Francis joked that fellow cardinals had come "almost to the ends of the Earth" to find him.

During his papacy, the former archbishop of Buenos Aires pushed the Church to be more inclusive of those from the so-called "peripheries", whether geographical areas far from Rome, or long-ignored populations.

Through his trips abroad and outspoken advocacy of excluded groups like migrants and the poor, Francis sought to bring new voices into the over 2,000-year-old institution.

He actively sought out those "overlooked or under-represented in the universal Church", R. Scott Appleby, a US historian of global religion, told AFP.

But he warned "that doesn't guarantee, of course, that the next pope will be from the margins, from a country that's not as well-known, or is not Europe".

Appleby called it a "fool's game" to try to predict the next pope's nationality.

- Political 'counterpoint' -

Those betting on a non-European pope point to the fact that Francis has named the majority of the cardinals who will choose his successor, with many from under-represented regions.

But Europe still has the largest voting bloc, with 53 cardinals, compared to 27 cardinal-electors from Asia and Oceania, 21 from South and Central America, 16 from North America and 18 from Africa, according to the Vatican.

Some of those touted to succeed Francis also hail from outside the Church's traditional bastions of power -- notably Manila's Luis Antonio Tagle or Ghana's cardinal, Peter Turkson.

Cardinals from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo are also cited as contenders, in an admittedly wide field.

A pope from a poorer country brings a different perspective that would stand out in a world of strong and vocal Western leaders.

Such a pontiff would have "a first-hand experience of the poor... a country in a region that is not 'in the game'", Appleby said.

"And that lends a counterpoint to what have been the power centres on the political front. It's important for the Church to not simply replicate the power centres of the world."

The conclave will be looking "for a cardinal capable of being a point of reference for many, according to different sensitivities", added Roberto Regoli, an Italian historian at the Pontifical Gregorian University.

- 'World on fire' -

But experts agree that a papal contender's ability to unite the Church in an increasingly fractious geopolitical context may be the central deciding point.

"The new pope will have to redesign the Church in a world on fire," Alberto Melloni, an Italian professor of the history of Christianity, told the Corriere di Bologna newspaper this week.

Appleby concurred: "It's hard to imagine that the next pope can ignore the tumult and the challenges in the world.

"They'll be thinking: 'Boy, the world's in crisis... Who among us can emerge as someone of the proper charisma and talent to lead the Church at this point?'"

H.Silva--PC