Portugal Colonial - New Bay of Bengal low may form November 13 as Tamil Nadu outlook remains unclear

A new low-pressure area is expected to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around November 13, adding to an unusually active period in the North Indian Ocean. The India Meteorological Department said the system could strengthen into a well-marked low within the following 24 hours. The development follows Severe Cyclonic Storm Murasu and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab. Meteorologist Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather said two cyclones forming in quick succession was unusual and that the next system required close monitoring during the most active phase of the northeast monsoon.

Forecast models did not yet agree on a track. Some indicated movement toward Andhra Pradesh, while others projected a path toward Myanmar. Palawat said the outlook should become clearer within 48 hours. The system was not expected to become a cyclone at that stage, although warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures could support further intensification. Most models did not indicate an immediate threat to northern Tamil Nadu, and some suggested the system could turn toward the northeast. The North Indian Ocean generally records three or four cyclones a year across the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons. If the new system reaches cyclonic strength, it would become the third cyclone of the current season.

Following the recent deaths of nine fishermen, the Fisheries and Fishermen Welfare Department instructed all mechanised boats and motorised traditional craft that had left Chennai Fishing Harbour to return by November 12. Separately, the Regional Meteorological Centre forecast isolated heavy rain on Wednesday in Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi and Tirunelveli districts. Thunderstorms, lightning and gusts of 40 to 50 kilometres per hour were possible at one or two locations.

Moderate rain was expected in parts of the Cauvery delta and southern Tamil Nadu, including Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Pudukkottai, Sivaganga, Madurai, Virudhunagar, Theni, Tenkasi and Kanyakumari. Other parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry could receive isolated light rain. Rainfall was forecast to continue in sections of the delta and southern districts on November 12 before easing on November 13, when mainly dry conditions were expected across most of the state. Rain could return to several coastal and northern districts, including Chennai, Tiruvallur and Chengalpattu, on November 14.

The weather office also forecast heavy rain in parts of the Cauvery delta on November 15 and in the Nilgiris and Coimbatore districts on November 16. The eventual impact of the developing Bay of Bengal system on Tamil Nadu remained uncertain pending clearer model guidance.

C.Amaral--PC